A New Way to Guess Bitcoin's Next Big Move
An analyst named Juan Villaverde from Weiss Crypto has a new theory about how to predict where Bitcoin's price is headed. He says he's found a hidden "asset" that almost no one in the crypto world watches, but it always changes direction about six months before Bitcoin does.
He believes this secret indicator can give us a sneak peek at what's coming for Bitcoin. For example, his data suggests that this indicator correctly predicted the market low in December 2018 and the all-time high in November 2021, giving a heads-up each time.
What Does This Mean for the Current Market?
According to Villaverde’s model, this special indicator is currently pointing to a big peak for Bitcoin around late November 2025. This lines up with other predictions he has made.
However, he's careful to say it's not a guarantee. If the mystery asset he's watching keeps going up past a certain point, it could mean Bitcoin's rally might last longer, possibly into 2026. On the other hand, if it starts to fall, it would be an early warning sign that the bull market could be ending after November.
Why Does He Think This Works?
Villaverde says this isn't just a simple coincidence. He believes the connection is strong because it's not just about which way the prices are moving, but also how much they are moving. By looking at both the direction and the size of the price changes, he says the indicator captures how investor feelings swing from fear to excitement and back again.
Even though there was one exception during the Russia-Ukraine war, he thinks that just proves the point: big, unexpected world events can mess things up temporarily, but the main relationship between the two assets always comes back.
Right now, Bitcoin is trading at $114,522.
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